The Danger of the Average Estimate

Imagine this scenario: You are estimating a complex new feature. You flip the cards. Two developers vote for a 3. Two others vote for a 13.

The Scrum Master looks at the screen, sighs, and says, "Let's just average it out and call it an 8 so we can move on."

Stop doing this immediately.

What a Split Vote Actually Means

An estimate is not a math problem; it is a conversation starter. Taking the average destroys the entire value of the estimation exercise.

A split vote like a 3 and a 13 means two fundamentally different understandings of the work exist in the same room. The person who voted 3 might have built something similar last month and knows a shortcut. Or, conversely, the person who voted 13 might realize that the legacy database needs a massive, risky migration before the feature can even work.

If you average it to an 8, you bury that crucial piece of information. You sweep the risk under the rug.

When the cards flip and the spread is wide, that’s your cue to talk. Our online estimate poker tool highlights the highest and lowest voters for a reason—so you can easily hand them the mic, figure out what’s missing, and vote again.